What's a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections

Thomas M. Carsey, William D. Berry

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  • 3 Citations

Abstract

Existing theories of contesting elections typically treat all potential challengers as identical while under-playing the importance of political parties and primary contests. We offer a theory addressing these issues based on how the various actors in the process define and evaluate the probability of winning an election and the value of the office being contested. We test our theory by estimating a model predicting which of three responses a party that loses a legislative race makes in the next cycle: nominating the same candidate, nominating a new candidate, or nominating no one. We find substantial empirical support for our theory.

LanguageEnglish (US)
Pages251-273
Number of pages23
JournalPublic Choice
Volume160
Issue number1-2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014

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election
candidacy
test theory
Elections
Values

Keywords

  • Elections
  • State legislatures
  • Strategic candidates

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

What's a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections. / Carsey, Thomas M.; Berry, William D.

In: Public Choice, Vol. 160, No. 1-2, 01.01.2014, p. 251-273.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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