State and national factors in gubernatorial and senatorial elections

Thomas M. Carsey, Gerald C. Wright

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

  • 100 Citations

Abstract

Theory: Voters link candidates for governor and senator to the president through partisanship. However, voters also distinguish between the functional responsibilities that governors and U.S. senators have regarding the health of state and national economies, respectively. Hypotheses: Voting in elections for both governor and senator should respond to presidential approval. Voting in senate elections should respond to evaluations of the national economy while voting in gubernatorial elections should respond to evaluations of the state economy. Method: We replicate Atkeson and Partin's (1995) analysis of American National Election Studies (ANES) date controlling for the pooled and clustered nature of the data. We then crossvalidate their study using media exit polls. Results: Our analysis confirms the above hypotheses, which contrasts with the findings of Atkeson and Partin (1995). These differences result from controlling for the pooled and clustered nature of the data and from the well-documented misreport problem in the ANES data.

LanguageEnglish (US)
Pages994-1002
Number of pages9
JournalAmerican Journal of Political Science
Volume42
Issue number3
StatePublished - Jul 1998
Externally publishedYes

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voting
election
election research
national economy
evaluation
senate
president
candidacy
responsibility
economy
health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science

Cite this

State and national factors in gubernatorial and senatorial elections. / Carsey, Thomas M.; Wright, Gerald C.

In: American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 42, No. 3, 07.1998, p. 994-1002.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

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